An intriguing Derby, for which the contenders are long on stamina if short on brilliance, may fall to Harzand, whose participation was confirmed only after Epsom took an inch of rain this week. He would provide a first success in the race for his veteran trainer, Dermot Weld, who won the Oaks here 35 years ago with Blue Wind.
That makes Harzand (4.30) attractive, since he looks the strongest stayer in the field. Races over two miles were even mooted for him by the Racing Post after his latest start, when he powered home in the Ballysax, the third horse toiling nine lengths behind.
Both his wins have been on heavy going and there is no question that rain will always be a help to him. But he probably does not need the ground as testing as it was at Leopardstown, where he travelled quite sweetly through the early stages. One could also be encouraged by the way he bounced out of the stalls, suggesting he can take an early position no further back than midfield this time.
As Minding showed on Friday, one can win a Classic here from last place at the home turn but this big field means there will be fewer lanes available in the straight. Those who try to come from the very back will surely find that one of those in front is not stopping.
Wings Of Desire, Cloth Of Stars and Algometer are the others who should be finishing to best effect. The suspicion is that US Army Ranger, Ulysses and Across The Stars may not quite be ready for such a severe examination at this early stage of their developments.
Moonlight Magic would have been the pick in other circumstances. He has a turn of foot that might have carried him clear of these if the ground was on the fast side. The weather has not been kind and nor has the draw, since stall one means he may have to use up early energy to avoid being stuck in the rear.
Saturday’s other TV races, by Chris Cook
2.00 Epsom Poet’s Word is a promising entrant for Sir Michael Stoute, who has a good record in this race and won it last year. This colt appreciated the step up in distance to break his maiden at the third attempt last month and does not look harshly treated on that form. The second, third and fourth all won next time.
2.35 Epsom The magnificently bredSayana is a Galileo half-sister to two Group One winners. Unraced until the autumn of her three-year-old season, she seems to be improving significantly for each race and looks well up to the necessary standard, having made all to bag a Listed prize at Chantilly last time.
3.10 Epsom Postponed has thoroughly blossomed since last summer, when he won the King George, continuing the progress he was making for Luca Cumani now that he is with Roger Varian. Cut in the ground suits him well and he can take another step forward here. Found would prefer a faster surface, so Simple Verse is more of a threat.
3.45 Epsom It’s hard to get away from Duke Of Firenze, who won this race three years ago and has now recovered his form after a change of stables. He won a similar contest at York last month and still looks well treated under a 4lb penalty, while his draw against the stands’ rail should be a help.
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